The home building industry is a cornerstone of economic prosperity, driving job creation, fostering community development, and fulfilling the essential need for shelter. To navigate its complexities and anticipate future trends, insights from local experts are invaluable. This article marks the inaugural piece in a dedicated series, proudly presented in collaboration with the Dallas Builders Association. As a distinguished professional organization, the Dallas Builders Association stands as a beacon for industry excellence, and we are honored to partner with them in sharing critical perspectives on the housing landscape.
By Phil Crone, Executive Officer, Dallas Builders Association
Understanding the Core of Housing: A Non-Partisan Imperative
In the often-polarized realm of political discourse, I find myself identifying not as a Democrat or Republican, but fundamentally as a Houser. My dedication, and that of our Association, centers squarely on housing affordability and the enduring opportunity of homeownership. These are not partisan issues; they are universal aspirations that resonate deeply across the entire political spectrum. Our industry has witnessed periods of both immense success and significant challenge under various administrations, irrespective of the party in power. While our advocacy efforts often adapt to the prevailing political climate, the fundamental questions facing the housing market remain constant. The answers to these questions will critically shape the economic future, not just for our vibrant Dallas-Fort Worth region, but for the entire nation.
The prospect of a Trump presidency and its potential implications for housing first crystallized for me during his address to our National Association of Home Builders Board in Miami. His speech, for the most part, offered a refreshing personal connection to our industry. He spoke warmly of his father, a home builder, recounting lessons learned about frugality, resourcefulness, and the profound value of skilled labor from all walks of life. He championed the honest, hard day’s work that defines our sector. He particularly connected with the audience by acknowledging the stifling impact of excessive regulation on construction costs and timelines, specifically citing the significant and escalating healthcare expenses faced by businesses. The audience was visibly engaged. However, the discourse took an unexpected turn as Mr. Trump concluded by making an unrelated, controversial accusation against Secretary Clinton. Unsurprisingly, it was this final, inflammatory remark that captured the headlines, overshadowing the substantive points he had made regarding the industry.
Navigating Dallas’s Dynamic Housing Market Amidst National Shifts
The Dallas-Fort Worth area’s housing market has experienced a remarkable period of growth and vitality over the past few years. Fueled by record-breaking job creation, a thriving economy, and continuous population influx, our region has enjoyed a “red hot” real estate market where demand consistently outstrips supply. Homes, after all, are where the workforce rests and rejuvenates, making the housing sector a direct beneficiary and driver of job growth. While the exact interplay between national policies and local success is often debated, the undeniable fact remains: our region has benefited from a powerful economic tailwind. Yet, alongside this success, several significant challenges persist. How President Trump and his administration choose to confront these challenges will undeniably have a “yuge” and lasting impact on our continued economic trajectory.
Addressing the Critical Construction Labor Shortage
Foremost among our challenges is the escalating labor shortage within the construction sector. A recent survey of our builder members in September revealed alarming statistics: the scarcity of available skilled and unskilled labor is adding more than $4,000 to the cost of a new home and, perhaps more critically, extending completion dates by an average of two months. This isn’t merely an inconvenience; it translates into higher housing costs for consumers, delayed occupancy, and reduced inventory, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in our booming market.
The issue is multifaceted. Licensed trades, such as electricians, HVAC technicians, and plumbers, are in critically short supply, exacerbated by an aging workforce. The average carpenter, for instance, is 49 years old, while the average plumber is 56. This demographic trend signals a looming crisis as experienced professionals retire. Furthermore, over two-thirds of our members report substantial negative impacts on their businesses due to the lack of unskilled trades, including vital roles like roofers, framers, and brick masons. The absence of these fundamental workers slows down every stage of construction, from foundation to finish.
Effectively addressing this labor deficit requires a dual approach: cultivating talent from within our borders and strategically engaging with international workers. From within, we need a fundamental culture shift—a shift that President Trump is uniquely positioned to champion. For too long, societal messaging has perpetuated the misconception that a four-year college degree is the sole pathway to success for young Americans, often irrespective of the career prospects it offers. This narrative has inadvertently devalued vocational trades, despite their critical importance to our economy and their potential for lucrative, debt-free careers.
The recent election results underscored the power of working-class voices, particularly from the industrial Midwest. Growing up near South Bend, Indiana, I witnessed firsthand the abandoned factories that once symbolized an era when America proudly made things. Our manufacturing prowess drove our economy and secured global victories. Today, homes remain one of the few tangible products we still predominantly build within our own country. Yet, to continue this vital endeavor, we urgently require more skilled craftsmen, especially in rapidly growing areas like Dallas. This necessitates a significant investment in trade and vocational programs for young people and adults. Such initiatives offer tangible opportunities for acquiring in-demand skills, leading to fulfilling careers without the burden of crippling student loan debt. This emphasis on vocational training aligns perfectly with President Trump’s campaign narrative of restoring American industry and creating domestic jobs.
However, even with expanded vocational programs, our construction industry will remain significantly reliant on immigrant labor for the foreseeable future. Without a substantial expansion of the guest worker program, the construction of a multibillion-dollar wall would ironically become a multibillion-dollar mistake for President Trump and the U.S. economy. The vast majority of the construction workforce, including many immigrants, are hardworking individuals who embody the American dream of building a better future for their families and communities. An expanded and streamlined guest worker program, potentially offering a pathway to citizenship, could effectively address national security concerns while simultaneously providing the essential labor force needed to sustain our economy and housing growth. Mr. Trump’s ambitious promises of revitalizing American manufacturing cannot be fully realized if the workforce responsible for installing those American-made products is walled off and unavailable.
Reforming Healthcare: Easing the Burden on Small Businesses
Healthcare costs were a prominent focal point throughout the campaign, and they remain a top concern for our members. Many have experienced staggering premium increases, often by 30 percent or more, and some were abruptly dropped by their carriers in the past year. These escalating costs significantly impact the bottom line for small businesses, reducing their ability to invest in growth, hire new employees, or offer competitive benefits.
President Trump has pledged to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), widely considered President Obama’s signature legislative achievement. While the initial fervor for a complete repeal was high, the reality of the political landscape suggests a more pragmatic path. I anticipate considerable attention on this issue during the new administration’s first 100 days. However, given the Republican Congress’s historical inability to agree on a unified replacement plan, the formidable influence of the healthcare lobby, and the lack of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, comprehensive reform is more likely than outright repeal. What that reform will ultimately entail is a complex question for another discussion, but any legislative action that brings relief from high premiums and stabilizes a volatile insurance market would be profoundly welcomed by small businesses across the construction industry and beyond.
Streamlining Regulations: Boosting Development and Affordability
Another area where the Trump administration is expected to enact significant change is regulatory reform. President Trump has promised to reverse many of President Obama’s executive orders, prominently including the “Waters of the United States” (WOTUS) rule. WOTUS represents a potentially crippling regulatory overreach that dramatically expands the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) jurisdiction to regulate even small bodies of water on private lands. This subjects developers to an incredibly costly, time-consuming, and often ambiguous federal permitting process for projects that previously fell under state or local purview. Rolling back WOTUS would be a highly welcomed move by the industry, offering much-needed clarity and reducing the burden of federal bureaucracy on private land development. I predict this reversal will occur early in the new administration.
Similarly, the industry anticipates a reduction in the Department of Energy’s (DOE) proactive role in mandating increasingly stringent energy codes. While the efficiency of energy codes for new homes has increased by more than 30 percent during the Obama administration, the key question is whether these mandates genuinely serve the goal of housing affordability. The challenge arises when upfront costs associated with these efficiency requirements become so high that they effectively price potential homebuyers out of the market. The DOE has often been criticized for promoting codes that dictate specific product “winners and losers,” rather than fostering market-driven advancements and innovation.
Currently, new energy code proposals are advanced if their upfront cost can be recouped through energy savings over an extended 30-year period—a timeframe far longer than most people typically reside in a single home. This lengthy payback period often means homeowners are paying more upfront for technologies from which they may not fully benefit. Fortunately, more reasonable proposals currently under consideration by Congress seek to reduce this threshold to a more practical 10-year payback period. There is now a high likelihood that such proposals will be passed, striking a better balance between energy efficiency goals and the critical objective of housing affordability.
Reforming Housing Finance: Ensuring Market Stability and Access
Finally, a major unresolved issue—a true “elephant in the room,” if you will—is housing finance reform, especially now with the GOP in control. President Trump’s stance on this complex topic has been difficult to discern, as it largely remained unaddressed during the campaign trail or in debates. The central, unresolved question revolves around the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) have remained in conservatorship throughout the Obama Administration, providing crucial liquidity to the mortgage market, but also raising concerns about government guarantees and taxpayer exposure. A related question is defining the appropriate role the federal government should play in the broader mortgage market.
The lingering scars of the 2008 housing collapse and the ensuing recession still loom large over our industry. Congressman Jeb Hensarling, a vocal advocate for reducing government involvement and Chairman of the powerful House Financial Services Committee, could potentially reopen old wounds by pushing for the passage of the Protecting American Taxpayers and Homeowners (PATH) Act. This ambitious legislation sought to eliminate virtually all government involvement from the conventional mortgage finance market and drastically reduce the Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA) critical role in supporting accessible homeownership. The passage of such an act could spell the end of the widely available and stabilizing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, profoundly impacting affordability and market access for countless Americans.
Our hope is that a more balanced and nuanced approach will ultimately prevail. This approach would prioritize pushing private investment to the forefront of the mortgage market while maintaining a critical, clearly defined federal backstop. Such a backstop is essential to ensure stability during economic downturns, provide a level of market liquidity, and, crucially, prevent another devastating housing crisis. Proposals advocating for such a balanced framework have garnered significant bipartisan support in the Senate, indicating a potential path forward that safeguards both market efficiency and consumer access.
Conclusion: The Path Forward for American Housing
From the pressing need to address labor shortages and the ongoing debate surrounding healthcare costs, to the complexities of regulatory reform and the fundamental restructuring of housing finance, President Trump and his administration face a series of pivotal decisions. How these questions are answered will have a profound and lasting impact on the nation’s best housing market, right here in Dallas, and indeed, on the entire country. Housing and the cherished American dream of homeownership remain primary engines driving our economy, fostering wealth creation, and building stable communities.
A strong, vibrant housing industry, underpinned by a robust and well-trained workforce, is not just desirable; it is absolutely essential to truly “make America great again.” By addressing these critical challenges with foresight, collaboration, and a deep understanding of the industry’s needs, the new administration has the opportunity to unlock unprecedented growth and solidify the foundation of America’s economic future.